This morning, The Outlook Study: August Update has been released by the IAB as an update to their initial November 2023 study and provides a snapshot of projected ad spend, opportunities, and challenges for the remainder of 2024.
The study outlines the shifts that have occurred throughout the year, capturing current perspectives from buy-side ad investment decision-makers at brands and agencies.
Here are some of the key takeaways for digital marketers:
- Buyers increased their 2024 ad spend projections from +9.5% projected at the end of 2023 to +11.8% today.
- Nearly all channels are expected to post higher growth rates year-over-year (YoY), with even Linear TV rebounding.
- Retail media’s ascent continues, with buyers revising YoY projections from +21.8% to +25.1%.
- Buyers continue to focus on cross-funnel KPIs while shifting efforts towards reach optimization as interest in new KPIs wanes.
- Measurement challenges persist for the industry, while economic concerns subside.
In other words, it’s time to spring forward, not fall back, in the media and marketing industries.
Buyers’ Ad Spending Forecasts For 2024 Have Been Revised Upward
The increase in projections is not what many digital marketers were expecting, so what is happening in the changing industry landscape?
Increased ad spending in the second half of 2024 is being driven by increased political spending around the presidential election and other cyclical events, such as the Summer Olympic games.
Based on IAB’s recent email survey of 200 buy-side ad investment decision-makers, primarily at brands and agencies, nearly all channels are expected to post higher growth rates YoY.
Yes, even linear TV is now expected to grow 4.3%, but nine other channels are expected to grow at even faster rates:
- Connected TV (CTV) by 18.4%.
- Social media by 16.3%.
- Paid search by 13.1%.
- Podcasts by 12.6%.
- Digital video excluding CTV by 12.5%.
- Digital out-of-home (OOH) by 8.9%.
- Digital audio, excluding podcasts, by 8.3%.
- Digital display by 7.4%.
- Gaming by 5.1%.
Why Is Retail Media Expected To Continue Growing?
Buyers – particularly in the consumer-packed goods (CPG) and the beauty categories – are set to surge in the U.S. this year, pushing overall retail media ad spending to reach one-fifth of the total 2024 ad spend.
Okay, these are the reasons to spring forward, even if we’re on the verge of fall. But there are a couple of challenges that digital marketers still face.
For example, there’s been a decline in focus on new ad KPIs (e.g., attention metrics, weighted CAC, etc.), which suggests there’s been a renewed interest in refining and leveraging established metrics to achieve cross-funnel goals.
However, goals can vary by channel.
As I mentioned this summer in “Business Outcomes Are The Top KPI Of Video Ad Buyers – IAB Report Part Two,” IAB’s latest Digital Video report found that within the digital video channel, buyers are determining success via business outcomes, i.e., sales, store/website visits, etc.
So, figuring out how to use Google Analytics 4 (GA4) to measure business outcomes instead of marketing outputs remains “the road less traveled.”
Understanding Evolving Consumer Habits Is A Growing Concern
While economic worries have faded, the concern over executing cross-channel media measurement has risen.
The resilient economy, marked by a 2.3% rise in consumer spending in Q2 2024, has eased buyers’ concerns.
But, as media convergence gains traction, cross-channel measurement remains a top priority, especially for large advertisers that spend over $50 million annually.
Other concerns, like managing reach and frequency across screens and channels, as well as media inflation, have remained flat.
Understanding evolving consumer habits is a growing concern – and is keeping significantly more buyers up at night than it did last year.
It does seem like it’s time to spring forward in the media and marketing industries, although this has traditionally been the season when digital marketers prepare to fall back.
All data above has been taken from The 2024 Outlook Study: August Update – A Snapshot into Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth by the IAB. The study is a follow-up to the initial November 2023 release, providing current perspectives from 200 buy-side ad investment decision makers at brands and agencies.
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